How many SnG's have you lost (not ITM) in a row? [Archive]

AA suited

07-07-2004, 02:45 PM

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11 in a row longest....followed by 4 2nd place and 3 1st place...

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it looks like i'm the opposite. i made #1 2times in a row ($234 profit), then 8 strsight loses. these 8 SnGs are costing me $264 /images/graemlins/frown.gif

darn that 10% fee /images/graemlins/frown.gif

ZeeJustin

07-07-2004, 03:17 PM

I had 15 last weekend, and I don't even keep track, so it may have been longer. All I know is that I started with 8 at once, and missed in all of them, and then lost the next 7 I entered.

If you play multiple at once, it's important to keep track of this by starting time for each tourney. Ending time would be bias since tournaments you win take longer than tournaments you lose.

allenciox

07-07-2004, 03:29 PM

This poll is hogwash... 58% of the respondents saying they have 8 or less consecutive losses. Starting at any particular SNG, if you are playing all tourneys equally well, and you have a 40% rate of placing (which is a really good placement rate), then you have the following percentages of a string of losses of this length or longer:

1: .6
2: .36
3: .216
4: .130
5: .078
6: .047
7: .028
8: .017
9: .010
10: .006
11: .0036
12: .0022
13: .0013
14: .0008
15: .0005
16: .0003
17: .0002
18: .0001

According to this, you should have a string of 8 or more out-of-the-moneys about once if you play 60 SNGs. So those that have less than 8 are either lying, or haven't played much!

Note that in a 1000 SNGs you can expect a streak of 13 or longer a little more than once, but at a 40% rate of placing, unless you are playing worse than normal, you would expect a streak of 18 or longer only after about 10000 SNGs!

My personal out-of-the-money streak is 14, by the way.

Beavis68

07-07-2004, 07:17 PM

I had an awesome streak going on UB, for Nov and Dec, then in January, I think I lost about 12 in row - the one I did win, was a TEC game I entered accidently - that sucked, would have rather had the cash.

It was a combination of bad beats, and bad play. I had at least 3 where I had about 40% of the chips, with 7 people left and still didnt make the money. Mostly from bluffing idiot callling stations.

I swtiched to Omaha after that, I just can handle sitting there for an hour and half playing that tight right now.

ligastar

07-07-2004, 09:38 PM

My worst stretch has been 15 no moneys in a row on PP $10 tables.

DarrenX

07-07-2004, 10:25 PM

16 $30+$3s... ITM in a row, 8. 1sts, 5. Maybe I wouldn't have lost the 16 in a row if I wasn't drinking like 'the master'... /images/graemlins/blush.gif

Nepa

07-07-2004, 10:51 PM

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Note that in a 1000 SNGs you can expect a streak of 13 or longer a little more than once, but at a 40% rate of placing, unless you are playing worse than normal, you would expect a streak of 18 or longer only after about 10000 SNGs!

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I'll bet that you couldn't lose 18 in a row if you sat out 18 in a row. You would make the money a few times, not sure how many though.

I watched a guy sit out and get 2nd one time.

eastbay

07-07-2004, 11:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Note that in a 1000 SNGs you can expect a streak of 13 or longer a little more than once, but at a 40% rate of placing, unless you are playing worse than normal, you would expect a streak of 18 or longer only after about 10000 SNGs!

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I'll bet that you couldn't lose 18 in a row if you sat out 18 in a row. You would make the money a few times, not sure how many though.

I watched a guy sit out and get 2nd one time.

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In the $10 or $20's, maybe...

eastbay

NNH

07-08-2004, 12:02 AM

Had 11 in $10 SNG's. Bad beats and just bad decisions. Working out the wrinkles.

AA suited

07-08-2004, 12:33 AM

ah..got up to 9 30+3 w/o ITM, then broke my streak. came in 2nd in the next one. then lost the next one, then won the next one.

i should have been in the $ in all of them. the 1st one was a bad beat (flopped top 2 pair and he rivered a flush). the 2nd one that i lost was a stupid error on my part. i was multitabling and the tables overlapped. i was concentrating on the other table which i had flopped top set.

then i heard the time warning go off on the other table. i glanced over and saw i was button w/A4s and didnt see anyone else bet. i quickly hit the raise button to steal the blinds. i was anxious to get back to the other table. however, that other table was in front so it was covering the big stack who raised. i've just commited 3/4 of my stack /images/graemlins/frown.gif needless to say i missed everypart of the flop. he bet the rest of my stack and i had to fold. then didnt catch any cards and was blinded out /images/graemlins/frown.gif ARRGG!

but luckily i took 2 players out on the other table where i had top set and proceeded to win that one. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

I now know that i can hold my own at 30/3 and the 9 straight loses was just variance. phew...

next is 50+5 but that's next month when i built up my bankroll and learned how to adjust to 1000 chips instead of 800.

viennagreen

07-08-2004, 03:21 AM

i agree that the poll results don't seem right... i did these same type of calculations myself after going on a 13 in a row out-of-the-money streak not too long ago... my sample size is a little over 1200 sngs in the $30's and $50's on party

long story short--- i was feeling pretty bad after 13 out of the money finishes, and the actual statistics ended up cheering me up a little (not entirely cheery, of course, but i felt slightly better about myself)

Losing all

07-08-2004, 04:47 AM

Bubble play, even at the 10's, is granite like. I don't doubt you saw someone do it, people win the lotto a lot too. It doesn't make it very likely. The "sit out into the money" topic comes up from time to time around here, and it's a joke.

TEBPilot

07-08-2004, 01:15 PM

My worst so far is 10 in a row at the Party 20's.

Desdia72

07-08-2004, 01:53 PM

i most i've probably went without cashing is probably between 5 and 7 at the $5 and $6 levels- never had a long dry spell without cashing. i'm currently in the 43% ITM range and have'nt had too many swings negatively. i usually may go in patches of 3 for 4, 2 for 7, 2 for 8, 5 for 6 etc.
nothing to out of the normal but nothing to spectaculiar either. my best run during my current batch of SNGs was 9 for 10 with about 4 wins, my worse was probably 2 for 10.

imcastleman

07-08-2004, 03:37 PM

I played 650 $215 tournaments last month and in the span of 21 tournaments I got 3rd once and not in the money the rest and was very happy when that swing was over.

Copenhaver

07-08-2004, 04:08 PM

Say what? 650 tournaments in a month? I haven't played that many in 2004! You must literally play almost 24/7.

WC64

07-08-2004, 05:52 PM

I have lost 7 in a row is the most then won 3 straight after that /images/graemlins/smile.gif

SumZero

07-09-2004, 01:24 AM

I have a moderate number of SNGs (over 200) and my ITM% is right at 40% and my longest streak is 7. I have 2 other streaks of 6.

What your numbers are not getting right is this is the likelihood that you just started a streak of length n GIVEN that you just ended a winning streak with your first loss. So if you went ....WL and want to know what the likelihood that the losing streak you just started lasts exactly n losses it is the probabilities that you just cited. But you can't just do 1 divided by this probability to determine after how many SNG's you'd expect to see a streak of this length. The reason for this is this is the probability that you just started the streak given the WL pattern so you need to multiply by the length of the average winning streak followed by the length of the average losing streak to get the better estimate. The average winning streak is 1 2/3 and the average losing streak is 2 1/3. So you need to multiply all the numbers you gave by 4. So the streak of 8 is expected around 240 SNGs, which is exactly how many I'll have if I lose the next 8 SNGs I enter. Damn, you've cursed me now. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Hood

07-09-2004, 09:06 AM

[ QUOTE ]
i quickly hit the raise button to steal the blinds. i was anxious to get back to the other table. however, that other table was in front so it was covering the big stack who raised. i've just commited 3/4 of my stack /images/graemlins/frown.gif needless to say i missed everypart of the flop. he bet the rest of my stack and i had to fold. then didnt catch any cards and was blinded out /images/graemlins/frown.gif ARRGG!

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So you were getting about 7:1 on the flop? I'd rather fancy my ace high, I'd call every time.

allenciox

07-09-2004, 04:37 PM

Not quite, sumzero. I went ahead and ran a simulation, running 10000 times:

100 tourneys, 250 tourneys, 500 tourneys, and a 1000 tourneys, where you had a random .4 chance of finishing ITM. The results show that about half the time in 100 tourneys you would have at least one losing streak of 8 or more, increasing to 83% of the time for 250 tourneys. In 250 tourneys, you should have at least one losing streak of 10 or more about 45% of the time.

In 500 tourneys, you should have at least one losing streak of 10 or more at least 71% of the time, but at least one losing streak of 14 or more only 14% of the time.

This could be useful also in determining whether your play has gone downhill or you are just experiencing a swing of bad luck. If you go 10 tourneys without placing, maybe its bad luck. If you go 14 tourneys, you should maybe look at your play.

stupidsucker

07-09-2004, 10:27 PM

out of 412 SnGs at the 10+1 level
I had 3 streaks of 12
and one streak of 20 out of 22
This was a horrible horrible run and I took a month break afterwards.

my RoI for the 412 was +23%

Streaks happen, and its best just to sluff them off or tilt sets in.(Provided you KNOW you are a winning player).

No one should be above analizing their own game and patching holes to kick a bad swing.

ITM using the same 412 was
a streak of 8
and one of 7

only 3 were 1sts in a row.

AA suited

07-13-2004, 08:46 AM

update:

ok, lost 3 in a row at 30+3. (1 was a stupid move of calling an all in by big stack with AKo and lost to his pocket pair when i was on the bubble with #2 stack.)

then won, then lost 4 in a row. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

so down -$100 yesterday. sigh

AtlBrvs4Life

07-21-2004, 07:14 PM

I just accomplished a new record of 10 losses in a row. I'm still working on it, so more than 10 is definately a possibility. /images/graemlins/mad.gif

Meatmaw

07-21-2004, 07:29 PM

I don't think that statement is correct. That's like saying because the chance of flipping heads 4 times in a row is 1/16, that in 16 flips you'll get heads about once. I do not know the statistics, but the fact that playing 8 games in a row yields a 1/60 chance of losing all 8 means simply that in 60 independent samplings of 8 games, one of those samplings on average will have an 8-loss.

Can someone verify the formula to find out % chance of losing N times in X samples? it's some polynomial or binomial craziness I think, from my recollection of school days. heh.

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According to this, you should have a string of 8 or more out-of-the-moneys about once if you play 60 SNGs.

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C M Burns

07-25-2004, 04:33 AM

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Can someone verify the formula to find out % chance of losing N times in X samples? it's some polynomial or binomial craziness I think, from my recollection of school days. heh.

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try this site
http://ic.net/~jnbohr/java/CdfDemoMain.html

13 is my worst streak, and this month. I've been playing alot of UB b/c of the sng bonus, I've managed to loose about as much as the bonus gained, is that a glass half full or empty, I don't know. Anyone else been playing alot of ub this month?

HUSKER'66

07-25-2004, 05:27 AM

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I played 650 $215 tournaments last month and in the span of 21 tournaments I got 3rd once and not in the money the rest and was very happy when that swing was over.

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Bullshit.

Not only are we suppose to blindly believe that you averaged almost 22 tournys a day for 30 consecutive days, but that you also outlayed $139,750.00 in fees?!?!?

I don't think so.

Husker

stupidsucker

07-25-2004, 01:03 PM

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Not only are we suppose to blindly believe that you averaged almost 22 tournys a day for 30 consecutive days, but that you also outlayed $139,750.00 in fees?!?!?

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Whats so hard to believe about it?

There are more then a few people here that make poker their main source of income. They devote 8+ hours a day to it like anyone else would a normal job. Some online pros play 8 tables at a time of SnGs. Doing 30 SnGs a day is very easy and only takes 5-6 hours. 5 days a week(2 days off) is 600 Sngs in 4 weeks. Avergages out to exactly 650/month (150x52/12=650)

Its not like he had to have 140k on hand and spend it all at once. since July 1st I have played 307 SNGs. my goal for the end of the month is 470(I got a late start).

I can understand it seeming a little much, but you shouldn't go calling people liars like that.