WSOP poker event 1 - common mistake

[curtains]

Here is a mistake Ive seen a few times on televised events and I've never yet seen any of the commentators critisize it whatsoever, yet its a terrible error.

I forget his name, but I think it was Nguyen....called preflop against Vogl with J9s...Vogl had 55. Flop was AT6 with 2 clubs. Nguyen was shortstacked and checked and then called when Vogl (big stack) went allin, and then Nguyen called.
Checking is a really terrible mistake, and Nguyen must push allin himself in that situation. Paul Darden made the same mistake in the WPT , heads up vs Bigler in season 1, and ended up having to play a queen high flush draw against Biglers King high, because he didnt bet him off the hand.

[jwvdcw]

If what you're saying is that if you have a marginal hand that is around 50/50 and you plan to call an all in bet, then you should just go all in yourself, then I totally agree.

[B Dids]

I was just thinking that. You HAVE to push there.

[Rushmore]

Obviously, you're right.

I think the problem is that we are all so poker-oriented here that we forget that plays like the one you are talking about, while rudimentary to us, are fairly esoteric to the viewing audience, and probably to the ineffably vacuous Mr. Chad.

Trying to listen to Norman Chad explain the point you are making just doesn't sound like great TV.

Great TV is about pots being contested, draws being chased, and some guy cutting a pickle in half with a winged playing card.

Math and probability just ain't got no sex appeal, baby.

[curtains]

I understand that these commentators don't understand these ideas most likely. My main point is that people who are making it pretty far into tournaments, and even winning them, are making this error a lot.

[Rushmore]

Having gone back and re-watched the play, I suppose you could make an argument that Nguyen intended to check-raise Vogl allin, but that Vogl beat him into the pot, leaving Nguyen the unhappy option of simply calling the allin.

I see your point, but if Nguyen's plan was to move him in with a check-raise, then I suppose it wasn't a "terrible mistake."

It is, of course, possible that he figured the likelihood of Vogl moving in behind him was negligible, yet the likelihood of him betting was very high. If he reads Vogl for a player who can fold a lot of hands to an allin check-raise, and he believes it's very unlikely that Vogl is about to push allin, then the play isn't really all that terrible.

Hmm.

[Ghazban]

I agree that he made a mistake there but, in a 9-hour final table cut down to one hour with commercials, they're really only going to be showing the hands where someone gets knocked out. In this case, he made a mistake that cost him the tournament so of course they'll show it. Had he pushed in and gotten Vogl to fold, the hand wouldn't have made it off the editing room floor.

I guess my point is just that everybody makes playing mistakes from time to time and, when that mistake knocks a person out of the final table, of course that'll be what you see on TV. You see this error a lot because it is a catastrophic one (and is therefore TV-friendly), not necessarily because its that common.

[Michael Davis]

"ineffably vacuous"

What does unspeakably empty mean?

-Michael

[fsuplayer]

I would CR here almost everytime if I thought he would bet. Which the kid was doing everytime we saw him, i dont think he checked more than once.

I am not folding this draw with that stack anyways so I would rather Vogl put more chips in, regardless of his hand.
As it was the Asian guy got Vogl to put in his money as an underdog, which is all you can hope for.

BTW I think that ESPN's percentages were way off for that hand. They had the asian as a 55-45% underdog after the flop...isnt it the other way around?
Flop: A /images/graemlins/club.gif10 /images/graemlins/club.gif6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Asian:J /images/graemlins/club.gif9 /images/graemlins/club.gif
Vogl: 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
Asian has two overs and a flush draw (not that he knew the overs would be good at the time), i count 15 outs twice=30, minus the very small% of the time when he hits a J or 9 and then the five hits the river. It sure looks like the asian guy was the clear favorite on the flop. I think that twodimes.net is still down, anybody able to find the exact %'s?

fsuplayer

[fsuplayer]

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=386006
pokenum -h 5s 5h - jc 9c -- ac tc 6d
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Ac Tc 6d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
5s 5h 406 41.01 578 58.38 6 0.61 0.413
Jc 9c 578 58.38 406 41.01 6 0.61 0.587

I play goot!

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

fsuplayer

[pokeraz]

I think what you are missing is that you are not accounting for other known cards that have already been folded. Those are factored in on the ESPN coverage.

[Rushmore]

It means that there is a void there so empty as to defy the denotation of the very word empty .

I'm sorry. I was utilizing an obviously heavy-handed phrase in aid of furthering a hyperbolic statement. (see: Al Franken's Lying Liars, etc.).

What I meant to say was that he's really not very good. Not very good at all. No.

[Rushmore]

Can anyone confirm this?

I find this infinitely enlightening and fascinating.

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
some guy cutting a pickle in half with a winged playing card.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pickle and banana cutting rocks. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Ghazban]

Yes, ESPN factors in other players' folded cards when they show their percentages. I think the WPT does this too (though I'm not sure about that one).

[B Dids]

I'd rather push and have him fold than race. If I'm SS-ed like that, let me take the pot down now, 'cause when I move in I don't know if he can call with the crap he's holding. Once I've checked, it's much easier for him to put me all in.

[Rushmore]

I totally agree; I was just looking for the rationale that I assumed must be there somewhere, as Nguyen is a seemingly talented and thinking player.

[Rushmore]

I did not know that. I assumed they were showing the percentages that the players assume they have.

In retrospect, I have no idea why I would think this. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Ghazban]

Yeah, I thought that, too, for a while until I saw an episode where things seemed way off (because 2 kings had been folded, killing two of KQo's outs) so I looked it up on twodimes and was able to figure out what they were doing. I'd rather they didn't do it that way so you saw the percentages as the players would assuming they had a perfect read on their opponent.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Having gone back and re-watched the play, I suppose you could make an argument that Nguyen intended to check-raise Vogl allin, but that Vogl beat him into the pot, leaving Nguyen the unhappy option of simply calling the allin.

I see your point, but if Nguyen's plan was to move him in with a check-raise, then I suppose it wasn't a "terrible mistake."

It is, of course, possible that he figured the likelihood of Vogl moving in behind him was negligible, yet the likelihood of him betting was very high. If he reads Vogl for a player who can fold a lot of hands to an allin check-raise, and he believes it's very unlikely that Vogl is about to push allin, then the play isn't really all that terrible.

Hmm.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, if you are saying that he had to call the all in because he was pot commited, then wouldn't Vogl be pot commited after betting and being check raised?? Your argument makes little sense to me.

[Rushmore]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, if you are saying that he had to call the all in because he was pot commited, then wouldn't Vogl be pot commited after betting and being check raised?? Your argument makes little sense to me

[/ QUOTE ]

He wouldn't be even remotely pot committed if he had made a smallish or even medium-sized bet and been check-raised for all of his chips.

I know you generally seem to know what you're talking about, so I'm wondering what I'm missing here.

[Mikey]

what I didn't like is that when A player raised coming in vs B player we didn't know what the blinds were or what they stack sizes were.

That is ridiculous because I'm wondering if Vogl made a good call with the AKs vs the QQ when he was put to the test. I wanted to know if he risked his whole stack, or part of his stack to make that play.

They should at least put in the blinds and also a guesstimate of the stack sizes during the play and not before and after commercial break.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Having gone back and re-watched the play, I suppose you could make an argument that Nguyen intended to check-raise Vogl allin, but that Vogl beat him into the pot, leaving Nguyen the unhappy option of simply calling the allin.

I see your point, but if Nguyen's plan was to move him in with a check-raise, then I suppose it wasn't a "terrible mistake."

It is, of course, possible that he figured the likelihood of Vogl moving in behind him was negligible, yet the likelihood of him betting was very high. If he reads Vogl for a player who can fold a lot of hands to an allin check-raise, and he believes it's very unlikely that Vogl is about to push allin, then the play isn't really all that terrible.

Hmm.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, if you are saying that he had to call the all in because he was pot commited, then wouldn't Vogl be pot commited after betting and being check raised?? Your argument makes little sense to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let me try again...sometimes I wonder if english really is my first (and only) language. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Let me preface this by saying I watched the episode while on the treadmill last night at the gym, so I have no idea about blind/stack sizes. I vaguly remember that Vogl had a pretty commanding chip lead at this point.

You said that Nguyen's intention may have been to check raise Vogl all in, and that's why he checked.
But since Vogl moved all in on Nguyen, he was left with the less attractive option of calling all in (presumably because he was pot committed, since you don't mention the option of folding).
Well, if Ngyuen is pot committed with nothing in the pot except the preflop action with Jack high w/ two overcards on the board and a shortstack, the Vogl is certainly committed if he has a pair, a big stack, and X amount of chips in on the flop, don't you think?
Therefore, I'm sure if he was going to call an all in, he should have pushed to begin with.

I'm not sure that either was committed since I don't know the stack sizes, but since Nguyen is a very good player, and he called all his chips with jack high, he was almost certainly PC'd.

Make more sense?

[Scooterdoo]

Interesting, but if you think about it the way they are doing it is right for the purpose it's used for -- specifically they are showing what the TRUE percentage each player has to win the hand so of course they should factor in all known cards.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Interesting, but if you think about it the way they are doing it is right for the purpose it's used for -- specifically they are showing what the TRUE percentage each player has to win the hand so of course they should factor in all known cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's silly to calculate the percentages with all the "known" cards, since "known" is pretty ambiguous. I mean, they already "know" the outcome, so why don't they put the little check mark by the guy who ultimately has the winning hand when the cards are first dealt??

[Rushmore]

[ QUOTE ]
Make more sense?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, much clearer, thanks.

At the time, I believe they were fairly even. There was not that much in the pot when this action started.

My point was not that it was a good play; my point was that it might be somewhat less horrendous if the man had a plan, awry as it might have gone.

And no, I do not think Nguyen was pot committed. I think he could have laid down and tried to win the tournament elsewhere.

I am not sure about the stack sizes, though, as I said.

Sorry. I was really just looking for anything that might justify this play from a decent player.

[SossMan]

got it.

By the way, any more big wins lately??

[Rushmore]

$22K at Stars last Sunday.

Shoulda been $50K+, so it's a mixed bag. But I already posted all of that.

I am unstoppable, for a donk. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[curtains]

I believe that the problem was that the pot was too big, so youd expect the guy to go allin after you check....and almost never make a bet that isnt allin. But ok, I dont know the EXACT stack sizes right now. However most situations in which you will call an allin with a flush draw, means you should go allin yourself...because the typical bet for that player would usually be allin. (because if the pot were smaller, you wouldnt have to call the allin)

[curtains]

THe pot is so big already, that you do not want to play it as a race. Its not even close, even as a 60% favorite. Its like 100k for free....or 60% chance for 200k.