Quick River Decision

[The Bear]

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed)

Preflop: Bear is BB with 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, CO calls, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, Bear calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (14 SB) 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, Bear checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP3 calls, CO folds, SB calls, Bear calls.

Turn: (9 BB) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, Bear checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP3 folds, SB calls, Bear calls.

River: (12 BB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Bear checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, SB calls


Call or fold? Does it even matter?

[DcifrThs]

notice the sb never called a raise...nor showed any strength...he could simply be calling here with a 4 or a 3. now what is UTG+1 betting? a lone 6? 66? i'm talkin about betting stuff that you now beat...is 77 possible, yea but you got 1...big pot though...since there is some chance that the above is accurate, you should call closing the river action. you're getting 14:1 on the call. so if you're right 1/15 times you break even, thats 93.4% (100-6.6), meaning you need to be more than 93.4% sure you're beat to fold...since a continued semibluff is quite possible, and the sb could easily have a 3 or 4 i think you should call...

-Barron