AA hand...

I get dealt AhAs in middle position.


A superfish posted immediately before me.


UTG opens for a legit raise. Fish cold calls, I 3-bet it. Both call. 3-way to the flop.


FLOP:


2-3s-5s


UTG bets, fish calls, I call(I am planning on hitting it on the turn).


TURN:


2-3s-5s--Qs


UTG fires again, fish raises, now what?


1) cold call, and call river if I hit the flush.

2) 3-bet and check the river if I don't improve.

3) cold call and call the river.

4) 3-bet and bet the river.

The more I think about it, the more a 3 bet is a decent value bet.


UTG can't have the club flush unless he raised UTG with KsQs. You're ahead of UTG a vast majority of the time.


You don't know what the fish has. The hands he raises with include flushes and low sets that beat you, but probably also single pairs of queens and maybe Ts-Ks. How often does he have you beat?


If UTG folds, then S&M say you should be a 55% favorite to make this raise. 20% of the time you make the flush, so if you are best now 35*5/4 = 44% favorite (35% ahead now, without counting the redraw twice), you have a raise.


Add in the UTG, and the raise is more tempting. You should have UTG beat yet he may call. That improves the odds on your raise. If he folds, that's good too since it's a big pot and that eliminates outs against you.


Dan

Call. You may be against a set of queens from the first position and a flush from the second position. If you reraise, you will drive out the first person if he only has AQ or worse (very likely). The second player could have anything. I can't tell from your description of the "fish". He probably has you beat on a board like this, but I would not fold. If I miss on the end, I make a crying call, hoping they are only playing one small pair. If they check to me, i will bet. They will be suspicious of just calling the turn, so they will most likely pay off assuming I was just drawing with the ace.

Could you please clarify that why "S&M say you should be a 55% favorite to make this raise"?


Thanks in advance!

If you can keep the UTG in with a cold call, then cold call. I you can't three bet and bet the river.

Not sure if they say 55% on previous streets, come to think of it. I also don't remember where, so I may be completely wrong; it might not be S&M.


Anyway, you need to be a 55%, not 50% favorite, to account for those times when you get reraised. It's a guideline; there's no math behind it.


I think this advice applies to when there are no more cards to come, which isn't the case here. But if you think about it, if you adjust the numbers for the redraw, and find out nf's chance of having the best hand on the river, that ought to be equivilent. I calculated that nf will end up a 55% favorite if he's a 44% favorite now.


IMO, this calculation is only useful to get a general ballpark idea of what to do. This says that you don't need to be sure you're ahead to raise here, and against "superfish", you probably are ahead a good chunk of the time.

It really should be a little more than 55% since there's an additional betting round after. Ordinarily, a reraise against you costs you 1 more bet but in this case it's 2.


However, when reraised you aren't losing 1 more bet, you lose .8 since even if you're reraised, you draw out 20% of the time. The numbers start to get fuzzy, and move around a bit.