River decision No. 3

[skp]

Hand No. 3

I open raise UTG with Ac8c. Only the bb calls.

Flop: QT8 rainbow

I bet and he calls.

Turn: 5

We both check (BTW, I would have no trouble with anyone suggesting that I bet the turn but I checked because of recent hand history at that table)

river: Ace making the board QT85A and I have A8

He bets. Call or raise?

[bicyclekick]

Your first problem is open raising UTG with A8s. In loose passive games like .5/1 or 2/4 it's ok to limp, but most games you shoudln't be playing this hand up front.

[stoxtrader]

I agree with kick that this hand is a muck UTG in the 15.

in regard to your question, I think you have an easy raise on the river.

[Ulysses]

Raise.

[Steve Giufre]

Im only calling here. Taking the information we have, he should probably be reading your hand for a big ace. You raised UTG, bet the flop, and checked the turn. To him, it should look a lot like AK or AJ, and he is leading into you anyway. If you think about what he probably thinks you have, it looks like there is a good chance he can beat one pair. I'm also assuming that since you didn't value bet him on the turn, he is probably a pretty reasonable player, which would make me question my hand a bit more. I just call agaist a thinking player, and I raise a dummy.

[chesspain]

This seems like an easy raise, especially given his check on the turn. If he somehow has AT/AQ (highly unlikely) or a super slow-played set (even more unlikely), then good for him.

[The Dude]

It's an easy raise in my book.

[Navers]

don't be scared of having your hand beaten, chances are you're up against a lesser two pair at best

[skp]

I think that yours is a very good analysis.

At the table, I instinctively raised. I then almost immediately felt it was a mistake for the reasons you gave. My opponent called and took it down with AT. I was lucky that he did not reraise.

I am surprised that the others who posted in this thread all consider my raise to be automatic. I think it's a mistake against most players given how I had played my hand to that point.

We can put our opponent's probable hand into the following categories:

1. A weak ace - most guys would check given my turn check. They would be more likely to bet if I had bet the turn (as they would then be less likely to put me on AK/AQ/AJ/AT)

2. any one pair hand - most guys would checkcall (some may checkfold) with the ace coming on the river after my turn check

3. a worse two pair hand - Almost everyone would bet (some would go for a checkraise). But there aren't that many weaker two pair hands out there (particularly when you take into account that the opponent would have had to have slowplayed somehwere down the line). While slowplaying is a distinct posibility in this spot by someone who held QT, there are of course players who will always fastplay it. This then has the effect of reducing the chances that the opponent has a hand like QT when he bets the river.

4. A better two pair hand/set/straight - no comment necessary

5. A bluff

In looking at these categories, I have to think that a river raise on my part is negative EV.

[Robb]

Hi skp,

I think it's fairly plainly a call for the reasons Steve mentioned. KJ and J9 are also possible hands for BB given the circumstances. Before I read the results....I noted that the BB lead bet the river when the Ace dropped and I thought "Eew" not "woo-hoo".

I'm a little surprised by the posters who think a raise is correct. I certainly don't think it's clearly a raise.
Regards,
Jamie